world population prospects united nation
Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects. The world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050, according to a new United Nations report launched today. The world’s population continues to increase, but growth rates vary greatly across regions. In Japan this ratio is 1.8, the lowest in the world. Regions where the share of the population aged 65 years or over is projected to double between 2019 and 2050 include Northern Africa and Western Asia, Central and Southern Asia, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The medium-variant projection corresponds to the median of several thousand distinct trajectories of each demographic component derived using the probabilistic model of the variability in changes over time. Prediction intervals reflect the spread in the distribution of outcomes across the projected trajectories and thus provide an assessment of the uncertainty inherent in the medium-variant projection. The 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Popular statistical tables, country (area) and regional profiles . In addition, a number of projection variants were produced to convey the sensitivity of the medium-variant projection to changes in the underlying assumptions, and to explore the implications of alternative future scenarios of population change (see Definition of projection variants). The impact of low fertility on population size is reinforced in some locations by high rates of emigration. These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, adult HIV prevalence and coverage of antiretroviral treatment, international migration flows and stocks of foreign-born persons, Developing Countries Mortality Database–DCMD. The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights, which is published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, provides a comprehensive overview of global demographic patterns and prospects. In China, for example, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050. For further details, see also the report World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. With each successive revision of the World Population Prospects, the Population Division of the United Nations estimates historical demographic trends for the period from 1950 to the present and projects future population trends out to 2100. The potential support ratio, which compares numbers of persons at working ages to those over age 65, is falling around the world. To benefit from this “demographic dividend”, governments should invest in education and health, especially for young people, and create conditions conducive to sustained economic growth. Countries in the world by population (2020) This list includes both countries and dependent … In projecting future levels of fertility and mortality, probabilistic methods were used to reflect the uncertainty of the projections based on the historical variability of changes in each variable. In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 or above outnumbered children under five years of age globally. In total, the 2019 revision is based on information from: In addition to the national data sources described above, the 2019 revision has considered international estimates from the following sources: These data sources served to reconstruct population changes in each country or area from 1950 until the present. Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections With each successive revision of the World Population Prospects, the Population Division of the United Nations estimates historical demographic trends for the period from 1950 to the present and projects future population … An additional 29 countries, mostly in Europe and the Caribbean, already have potential support ratios below three. Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double by 2050 (99% increase). Between 2010 and 2020, fourteen countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude. The cohort-component method was also used to project population trends until 2100 using a variety of demographic assumptions concerning the components of population change. Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Serbia and Ukraine will experience a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by an excess of deaths over births. The report also confirmed that the world’s population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels, and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing. Population, surface area and density; PDF | CSV Updated: 23-Jul-2019; International migrants and refugees Department of Economic and Social Affairs. In cases where data on the components of population change relative to the past 5 or 10 years are not available, estimated demographic trends are projections based on the most recent available data. The world’s population is growing older, with the age group of 65 and over growing the fastest. A growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. World Population Prospects 2019 In 2019, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7.4 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. Life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050. Some of the largest migratory outflows are driven by the demand for migrant workers (Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines) or by violence, insecurity and armed conflict (Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela). Falling proportion of working-age population is putting pressure on social protection systems. Migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. The 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. (A fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is needed to ensure replacement of generations and avoid population decline over the long run in the absence of immigration. The latest assessment uses the results of 1,690 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2018, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,700 nationally representative sample surveys. By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16%), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9%). These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Special Aggregates also provide additional groupings of countries. ), Mr. Liu Zhenmin, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions. The new population projections indicate that nine countries will make up more than half the projected growth of the global population between now and 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America (in descending order of the expected increase). The method takes into account the past experience of each country, while also reflecting uncertainty about future changes based on the past experience of other countries under similar conditions. Regions that may experience lower rates of population growth between 2019 and 2050 include Oceania excluding Australia/New Zealand (56%), Northern Africa and Western Asia (46%), Australia/New Zealand (28%), Central and Southern Asia (25%), Latin America and the Caribbean (18%), Eastern and SouthEastern Asia (3%), and Europe and Northern America (2%). Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations. In doing so, the Population Division used the cohort-component method (United Nations, 1956) to ensure internal consistency by age and sex and over time, and between the three demographic components of change (fertility, mortality and migration) and the enumerated population. Population. Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects. The main results are presented in a series of Excel files displaying key demographic indicators for each UN development group, World Bank income group, geographic region, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) region, subregion and country or area for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100. These low values underscore the potential impact of population ageing on the labour market and economic performance, as well as the fiscal pressures that many countries will face in the coming decades as they seek to build and maintain public systems of health care, pensions and social protection for older persons.

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