what can be done to avoid communications intelligence failures in the future
Technology can help sort and rapidly move information, but finding the right piece of data, assimilating the information, and putting it in context is never going to be the job of a machine. That in itself may encourage those ultimately responsible for restructuring the Community to leave the existing structure largely intact. Verification Office. [4] Bruce Reidel, “Catastrophe on the Yalu: America’s Intelligence Failure in Korea,” The Brookings Institute, 13 September 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/09/13/catastrophe-on-the-yalu-americas-intelligence-failure-in-korea/. communication issues, the CIA Recruitment Center does not accept resumes, nor can we return Your diverse skills. With the exponential increase in information, the number of politically motivated pundits and opinions is also increasing. One naval officer, two Korean operatives, and three others landed on Yonghung-do Island west of Inchon and trained guerilla fighters, launched raids, and gathered intelligence. (4) When each of these organizations is potentially gilding its own particular lily and the division of labor argument has been used to preclude any capacity for quality control, there is no basis upon which to assess risk objectively. (5) The various plans being considered to revamp the IC do little more than make passing references to analytic issues. The quality of analysis had become increasingly suspect. The Cold War and nuclear deterrence policy shifted the intelligence community focus to strategic intelligence collection on the Soviet Union, and, to a minimal extent, Chinese communism. And the obvious questions follow: how does the Community ensure it has sufficient analysts to "do the world"; how do we reverse the fragmentation of analysis; how do we ensure fusion and objectivity; and how do we do all this when we are already underinvested in analysis and facing a further decline in manpower? A basic HUMINT function, interrogation of POWs is an ample source of intelligence in conflict. Second, multiple reporting outlets to senior leaders must exist to prevent stove piping. Have a response or an idea for your own article? Technologically, we will be confronted with a rogue state with an ICBM; R&D on most fourth- and fifth-generation systems will be completed, and procurement will occur in militarily significant numbers, thereby confronting us with the risk of technological inferiority; a revolution in military affairs (RMA) and information warfare (IW) will be new challenges to the nation's security. (7) By implication, IC efforts focused on our ability to support two MRCs are misguided. Despite these optimistic trends, other threats will prove to be very real in the first decade of the 21st century. uuid:18f38380-3a42-4a8c-9206-699a754536c9 Whether we ultimately decide to retain a national-level community or to compress everything, one change should be implemented immediately. Instead, the backward view from 2010 is likely to be one when the United States enjoyed an extended period in which the major military challenges were substantially diminished from those of the early- to mid-1990s.(7). When we do the postmortems and try to reconstruct the broader institutional causes for the failure, we will find them spread throughout the national security apparatus--some a function of this period of history, others a function of mistakes: Executive Branch. And, as had been true of virtually all previous intelligence failures, collection was not the issue. Apparently assuming that analysis just "happens," a disturbing number have little knowledge of or interest in the substantive end of the business. [10] The few analysts working in Asia concentrated on strategic Soviet issues and proved insufficient to fill the needs of maneuver commanders on the battlefield. General MacArthur and his staff did not believe that any Asian country would risk fighting the United States for fear of certain defeat: The warnings were blatant. phone calls, e-mails or other forms of communication, from US citizens living outside of the Despite the warnings, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of State encouraged MacArthur to push north. These two intelligence errors—the North Korean attack and Chinese intervention—are possibly two of the gravest mistakes in U.S. intelligence history. In September 1950, the amphibious landing at Inchon cut off North Korean lines and initiated the second phase of the war. As for classic military threats, regional actors will have limited capabilities that could impact on US concerns: Iran in the Persian Gulf, China on its periphery, perhaps Russia against an expanded NATO, and so forth. Please check our site map, search feature, or our site navigation on the left This will ultimately say a great deal about the IC's future, and particularly about the amount spent on intelligence. Analysts are fungible. Intelligent failures are those that arise from thoughtful actions or experiments - what we like to call smart risks - and result in useful learning, allowing us to move forward more wisely. 2012-07-31T04:09:12-04:00 to us and to those with more detail. In this article, we’ll detail how to avoid miscommunication in the workplace. This alone suggests that we should concentrate first on Defense intelligence production consolidation--and only then go on to further reorganization. At one point up to 150 guerillas conducted island-hopping operations around Inchon. Who is a purveyor of accurate information and who is simply repeating uninformed platitudes? Or, you can send us a message using the Tor browser at ciadotgov4sjwlzihbbgxnqg3xiyrg7so2r2o3lt5wz5ypk4sxyjstad.onion. Accurate tactical intelligence masked by poor strategic analysis became the “preferred art form” for intelligence reporting from the peninsula. (3) This approach presupposes that the various issues falling under the rubric of intelligence analysis are unrelated, can be examined in a vacuum at the various organizations, and can then be added together to produce "the" answer. Prepublication Classification Review Board, Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room, news, press releases, information and more, Employment This change would address the lack of fusion and the lack of objectivity that otherwise will lead to intelligence failure. Despite the practice of the last several years, the IC does not have the luxury of deciding it just will not do things. Information coming from different means, methods, and areas requires a functioning structure to ensure senior national leaders have the best information to make the decisions. The belief that we can meet crises by moving analysts between disciplines has distinct limitations. The Recurrent Intelligence Requirements List organized the collection topics for intelligence assets from ‘A’ items to ‘C’ items. [37] SIGINT identified the locations of enemy infantry battalions, ammunition deliveries, radio outages, and new aircraft runways and shelters. To be looking at a requirement for post-2000 intelligence capabilities based on two MRCs is a recipe for making the wrong investment decisions.


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